Mortality orecasting by causes of death in the framework of multistate population projection

László G. Radnóti, Hungarian Central Statistical Office

The purpose of population projections is the estimation of expected future population counts and other quantities related with the future of a population. If the population is sufficiently homogeneous with respect to mortality and fertility and furthermore, the immigrants adapt to the same mortality fertility regime the traditional cohort component method yields unbiased estimates. However in a more realistic model the heterogeneity of the population should be taken into account generalising the cohort component method using multistate life tables. A series of multistate life tables should be forecasted instead of simple life tables. The present paper addresses special problems of this topic, related with mortality forcasting. There is a grate tradition of mortality forecasts using various model life tables (Brass, Coale-Demény and Heligman model life tables, etc.). Heligman’s model life table method based on principal component analysis generalised in a straightforward manner to deal with causes of death.