Alternative measurements of the ageing of the labour force. Demo-economic dependency ratios in the case of Italy (2000-2050)

Francesca Greguoldo, Univeristy of Rome, La Sapienza

There is a broad consensus that demographic change will have a tremendous impact on labour: as populations in Europe continue to age – some of them at an even faster path than today – their workforce will not be sufficiently rejuvenated. This is particularly true for Italy, where standard support ratios are predicted to decline very sharply within the next fifty years. However, the use of plain support ratios can be criticized as they do not take into account a country’s economic realities or its potential to react to the challenges of demographic change. The aim of this paper is to provide alternative measures of aging of the labour force by including economic variables into the ratios. These demo-economic dependency ratios take into account effects such as age productivity and consumption, but also gender issues. The focus lies on Italy as a case study. The data comes from Eurostat and are complemented by existing indexes.