Present trends of birth rate in Siberia: an attempt at analysis at macro and micro levels

Anna Mikheeva, Novosibirsk State University, Russia

The paper considers birth and marriage rates in Siberia for the 1990-2002 period. The main idea of the analysis is that “Siberian” trends at the macro level (compared with the national average and with their state in other countries) is that the present stage (the late 1990s – the early 2000s) in the region’s demography reflects the objective changes in the structure of human behavior, norms, attitudes and perceptions taking place at the micro level – in family, in individual life. The Siberian Federal District in the early 21st century is nationally second in birth rate immediately next to the Southern FD. The high birth rate in Siberia is due to practically all Siberian native republics: Altai, Khakasia, Buryatia, Tyva, Aginski Buryat, Ust-Ordynskii Buryat, Taimyrskii, Evenki areas where the summary birth rate makes 15.1-18.4 pro mille (2002). On the other hand, in the Novosibirsk, Omsk, Tomsk, Irkutsk, Chita regions this coefficient is rather low: 9-10 pro mille. Overall, the basic trends in birth and marriage rate generally coincide with the national ones. In order to study changes at the micro level, in the sphere of private life, special social surveys have been conducted: extramarital motherhood (N=50), cohabitation (N=43 couples), post-divorce parenthood (N=42) as well as mass polls in the Siberian region (2001: N=464, 2002: N=603). The results of the analysis of Siberian tendencies in birth and marriage rates at macro and micro levels allows us to assume that these tendencies are of a practically irreversible character; they reflect normal transformation of the institutions of marriage and family appropriate to the present state of the Russian society and to the general world demographic processes.