An analysis of determinants of internal migration in Russia

Vladimir Iontsev, Moscow State University
Ivan Aleshkovski, Moscow State University

Research issue to be addressed: In the 1990s under crucial transformation of socio-economic situation in Russia a new migration situation emerged, factors, determining the directions and the structure of interregional migration flows, have changed. The current level of internal migration is rather low. An average Russian changes his place of residence 2 times during the lifetime while an average American moves 13 times. There is considerable interregional variation of unemployment levels and other indicators of socio-economic development, regions with relatively advantageous labor market often neighbor regions in crisis. The forthcoming impetuous decline of population in the working age will exceed 15 mln in 2007–2015. Methodology and data to be used: An econometric migration model analyzing the determinants of internal migration in Russia is developed. The data comes from the Russian Statistical Service and the Federal Migration Service. We examine the migration flows between the 88 regions of Russia. Preliminary results: The paper presents the preliminary outcomes of the Russian Foundation for Humanitarians project (“Econometrics analysis of factors of internal migration in Russia”, №05–02–02048a). The study has shown that migration flows in Russia do follow certain objective laws, and the main internal migration factors mainly correspond to those in the developed countries. The main determinants of migration in Russia are of economic nature, at the same time economic factors are among the most important obstacles to migration. Our research has confirmed that in contemporary Russia internal migration has not become a powerful tool to level intraregional social and economic disparities, as in the developed countries. A new state migration policy, that would focus on the encouragement of intraregional movements, should be developed. This policy should be implemented mostly in a pecuniary form (e.g. loans), designed to cover the transportation costs and facilitate the adaptation of migrants, and at the same time it should eliminate the migration barriers.