The evolution of fertility in Europe: a parity analysis

Daniel Devolder, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona

Total fertility had continuously decreased in Europe since the end of the 1960s until mid 1990s, and has remained almost stable since. We will show that this evolution is mainly due to the role of two factors: the postponement of the age at first childbearing and the rise of childlessness. On the contrary, we will show that the change in the fertility of families, or parents, was much less instrumental in the decrease of total fertility. This will lead us to argue that change in fertility by parity are in fact more important in explaining low fertility in Europe than the variation of fertility tempo.