Future demographic trends in the Council of Europe member states. 2005 - 2050

Marek Kupiszewski, CEFMR, Poland
Jakub Bijak, Central European Forum for Migration Research
Beata Nowok, Central European Forum for Migration Research (CEFMR), Poland

In the paper we look at the results of the medium variant forecast of population presented in the UN World Population Prospects (2004 Revision). We assess the assumptions of the UN demographers, analyse the expected demographic change in clusters of states and, in addition, for selected states, and discuss the potential consequences of ageing and shrinking populations. To better grasp the consequences of population dynamics, we looked at the change in functional age groups. In particular the impact of these trends on various social domains: education, labour market, health- and social care, social protection, labour supply etc. is discussed. Finally, a qualitative analysis of the policy outcomes, as well as feasible responses to the demographic change and their evaluation from the policy-oriented perspective will be presented.