Dimensions of population ageing in Iran and its socioeconomic and health implications: new prospects

Nader Motie -Haghshenas, Ministry of Science, Research & Technology of Iran

Population aging is a growing challenge throughout the World. With the extension of the life span, more and more people reach an age, when they cannot or can barely take care of themselves. On the basis of the results censuses 1956-1996 are taken from SCI (Statistical Center of Iran), share of elder people (aged 60 and over) had risen .Having successfully managed an upward swing in fertility, Iran has entered a definite period of age-structural transition since 1996 which will continue through the first half of the 21st Century. As a result of this transition, the ratio of children of total population has dropped significantly while that of the elderly (Population aged 60 and over) is growing slowly but systematically and will rise from just 6.7% during the first two decades of the century to above 24% in 2050. During 1956-1996, Literacy and level of education, economic activity rate and life insurance factors among ages 60 and older have been fluctuated and their situation changed gradually, and would have anticipated continuing in the period between 2000-2050. According to the PSRC (Population Studies and Research Center) population projection for 60 aged and over by 2050,their number will be increase and their situation will give significant prospects. This projection has confirmed with UN population projection for 60 years old and older. Commensurate changes in dependency ratios, a decline in child dependency ratio along with a gradual rise in elderly dependency ratio. The period between 2015-2040 will be accompanied by a widening of the demographic window of opportunity. Unless this opportunity is seized, Iran may face serious problems of aging and population decline after 2040s which have serious implications for its social security and health care system.