Estimation of the life expectancy of persons with down’s syndrome through a longitudinal survival model

Aldo Rosano, Italian Institute of Social Medicine

Down’s syndrome is the most common inherited cause of mental retardation. Life expectancy is lower in people with this disorder than in general population. Estimation of life expectancy of persons with DS are hampered by lacking of relevant complete data. By using an exponential model with risk parameters estimated as a proportion of the mortality rates of the general population, with standard modelling of an individual's current mortality rate, it is possible to yield a set of age-specific mortality rates that can be used to produce a “customised” life table. With this computational strategy it is possible to provide estimates of life expectancy at different ages and other survival parameters. The method may also be useful for a variety of non-progressive disability.