Fertility transition and the progression to third birth in Turkey

Sutay Yavuz, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research

During the last two decades, Turkey entered into the last phase of its demographic transition. This study examines important determinants of third-birth intensities by applying event-history analysis to retrospective TDHS data. Some of the basic socioeconomic characteristics of women and their first marriages – regarding the cultural context of fertility behavior – are investigated with hazard regression models. We demonstrate that the third-birth intensities differ considerably by mother tongue of the woman. Turkish-speaking women who read easily and who were employed and covered by social security before their first marriage had the lowest transition rate from second to third child. In contrast, Kurdish women who could not read and who did not work had the highest third-birth risk. While the fertility decline among Turkish women has been constant for two decades, the fertility remains high among illiterate Kurdish women, who can be classified as laggards in the Turkey’s fertility transition