The multivariate mortality risk and patterns of advanced longevity in Scandinavian countries

Vladimir Shkolnikov, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research
Dmitri A. Jdanov, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research
Evgeni Andreev, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research

Mortality micro-data linked to population censuses from Scandinavian countries are used to evaluate the risk distribution across individuals and to identify low-mortality groups. They latter are defined according to combinations of conventional socio-demographic characteristics such as marital status, socio-occupational group, and education. We propose a procedure for the estimation of the whole range of the multivariate mortality risk in a population associated with these characteristics. The method uses a regression-based estimation of relative and attributable risk characteristics. It allows to identify the population “vanguard” indicating an accessible level of mortality under given macroscopic conditions. Further analyses reveal components of its advantage in terms of age and causes of death. Detailed investigations of temporal mortality and compositional changes since the early 1970s help to understand the role of the vanguard and other groups in the general population’s shift towards lower mortality and provide background for longevity forecasting.

Presented in Session 30: Vanguards: populations with very low mortality