Fertility in Russia

Irina E. Kalabikhina, Moscow State University by Lomonosov

This study is connected with fertility analysis in Russia. The purpose of the study is to estimate the changes in Russian cohort fertility in point of view parity analysis, and to study some factors of differences in fertility (female employment, level of education, nationality, etc.). Data: Russian Census 2002. Methodology: The method of parity-progression table is used to study parity distribution. To make picture more clear we stress Pollard’s decomposition of the TFR difference to measure the impact of each parity (each parity-progression ratio) on the cohort total fertility differences (the cohorts born from 1930 to 1965). Fertility of younger cohorts was estimated by accumulative fertility to age lines. Distribution of population (2002) by age and parity share are constructed for all women, for married women, for occupied women to compare the parity-progression schedules. The changes in Russian fertility for the cohorts born from 1930 to 1965 developed both decreasing of total level of fertility (TF from 2,18 to 1,66) and the transformation in parity distribution that produce shift of the probability-mass function for cohorts 1930-1965 in Russia. It is mainly significant for second parity. Pollard’s decomposition of the TFR difference permits us estimate the impact of each parity-progression ratio on the cohort total fertility differences. We could see the new important changes for Russia are the growth of impact of childlessness. Correlation and dissimilarity indexes between female distribution on age and number of children for total women and occupied women and for total women and married women in 2002 demonstrate, f.e., the distance between total and married women according to 0 and 1 parity. The intresting point is the difference in distribution of total and occupied women (aged 15 and more) by number of children in Russia (2002). F.e., childlessness among occupied women is less than among total woman.

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Presented in Session 12: Fertility trends in Central and Eastern Europe