The human mortality trajectory beyond the age of 105

Jutta Gampe, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research
James W. Vaupel, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research

Death rates at high ages level off for many species, including humans. Still it was not clear whether this deceleration in increase of mortality ultimately would lead to a plateau or even a decline in death rates at extreme ages. To study this question the International Database on Longevity (IDL) was initiated, which is a concerted international effort to gather age-ascertainment bias free and validated data on supercentenarians, that is individuals who attained at least 110 years. This presentation first will give an overview on the basic characteristics of the data contained in the database. Secondly, we will present methods and results of estimating the trajectory of human mortality from these data. In short, the human force of mortality is flat after age 110, corresponding to an annual probability of death of about 50%. New currently incoming data on ages between 105 and 110 will be included in the analysis.

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Presented in Session 30: Vanguards: populations with very low mortality