The highest fertility in Europe – for how long? Analyses of recent fertility changes in Albania based on individual longitudinal data

Arjan Gjonca, London School of Economics
Arnstein Aassve, University of Essex
Letizia Mencarini, University of Florence

Despite remarkable fertility reductions during the period 1950-1990 (Falkingham and Gjonça, 2001), Albania still has the highest level of fertility in Europe today with a TFR of 2.2 children per women. This paper, which for the first time uses individual longitudinal data, aims to first, investigate Albanian’s ‘success’ in bringing fertility down at the level of replacement, and to also analyse the reasons behind the reduction of fertility during the 1990s. It also discusses the possible developments of Albania’s fertility in the coming years. Using information from the World Bank Living Standard Measurement Survey conducted in 2002, we provide both non-paramteric and parametric analysis of recent fertility changes.

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Presented in Session 12: Fertility trends in Central and Eastern Europe