Demographic development of Russia and Ukraine: fifteen years of independence

Sergei Pirozhkov, The National Institute of International Security Problems
Gaiane Safarova, Saint-Petersburg Institute for Economics and Mathematics, Russian Academy of Sciences

All developed countries face serious problems connected with consequences of reproduction type change and age structure transformations. Besides, for Eastern Europe and CIS countries the last decades of the XXth century are marked by radical changes in all spheres of social life. Undergoing similar reforms Russia and Ukraine, besides, have more similarities in economic, cultural, linguistic and other aspects than other former Soviet republics. Thus, it presents both theoretical and practical interest to make a comparative analysis of current state and demographic dynamics of Russia and Ukraine. The study is based on vital statistics; data of the first censuses conducted in independent Russia and Ukraine (2001 for Ukraine, 2002 for Russia) is used. For computations Excel and Mathcad 2001 Professional is used. Main demographic components of population reproduction are fertility, mortality and migration. Besides, population age-sex structure plays an important role in population reproduction. Thus dynamics of the mentioned components for Russia and Ukraine since the last Soviet census is considered and compared. One of the main features of the world demographic development is progressing population ageing. Thus special consideration is given to ageing process in Russia and Ukraine. A number of ageing characteristics for these countries are compared. Results obtained demonstrate similarity between main demographic processes and age structure characteristics for Russia and Ukraine. Significant gender disbalance of demographic characteristics for Russia and Ukraine has been revealed. According to most of projections population decline and ageing will continue. The size and structure of migration streams for Russia and Ukraine that could ensure stable population dynamics have been found. Results of the study may contribute to better understanding of demographic situation in Russia and Ukraine within the European context and will allow to use more widely the experience of each of these countries in elaboration of social policies.

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Presented in Session 22: Population change on national and regional levels