European ageing populations (25 EU member states, 1950-2000), comparative structural analysis

Eleftheria S Androulaki, University of Thessaly, Greece

The main research issue of this article is the comparative analysis of the structural changes of the European populations after the World War II. The specific goals concern the depiction of the ageing rate of the 25 EU member states during the second half of the 20th century, the measurement of the proportion of the aged people which was due to the prolongation of human life and the correlation between that proportion and the life expectancy at birth at the end year 2000. The methodology corresponds to the needs of the analysis. Initially, simple demographic indexes and methods of depiction are used. A much more sophisticated method continues: For each one of the 25 EU member states, a combination of population projections’ method and the method of ‘simulation’ are applied. Regarding as an initial year for the projection the year of 1950 and as an ending one, the year 2000, the demographic parameter of mortality will remain still. So it becomes feasible to measure the impact of this parameter upon the population, through the comparison between the real population (with mortality changes) and the expected one (without mortality changes). Finally, statistical methods of calculating the relation between two variables (the life expectancy at birth and the proportion of the increase of the aged population that is due to mortality changes), will be used. The necessary data were downloaded by the United Nations’ Database. The results of each part of the analysis are quite expected and they are going to show the deviations among the European countries about the level of ageing of their population and the impact of the prolongation of life spam over it. Also, it is expected to reveal a strongly positive relation between the proportion of the aged population and the expected life at birth.

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Presented in Session 8: National and regional dimensions of population ageing