A projection of subnational populations for the whole United Kingdom for use in water demand forecasting

Philip H. Rees, University of Leeds
John Parsons, University of Leeds

Pressure on water resources in many parts of the UK demands careful forecasting of future water demand. One component of this demand is the likely changes in numbers of people and households in local areas. Currently, local area projections are produced by four different government agencies. This paper reports on the development of a projection system for the whole UK at local authority level using a multiregional population projection model. To this model is added a household projection module which forecasts households by size and by accommodation type, both of which are important in determining water demand. The household projection uses conventional household membership rates but extends the definition of household types to a classification useful for water demand forecasting.