HIV/AIDS-induced demographic behaviour change in Malawi and its long-term outcomes. An application of a dynamic multistate model

Alessandro Valentini, Università di Pisa
Piero Manfredi, Dipartimento di Statistica & Matematica Applicata all'Economia
Linda Porciani, University of Bari and University of Pisa

Future population evolution in SSAF countries is projected to be the outcome of the interaction between the flowing demographic transition and the “AIDS drift”. An issue not taken into account by official projections (and potentially invalidating them) is the impact that the spread of AIDS is having, through behaviour change, on fertility determinants (e.g. nuptiality). For Malawi this is documented by MDICP National surveys that have gathered data from three distinct rural districts characterised by different social structures roughly corresponding to the “matri-linear” society, the “patrilinear” one, and the transitional one. The present paper uses a multistate dynamic model mirroring the major features of the current Malawi population (iterative marriage, polygamy, etc) to project the long term effects of changes in demographic parameters on future population structure. The results suggest – conditionally to a steady AIDS prevalence - outcomes significantly different from UN projections.