Capturing temporal fluctuations in small area populations: towards a methodology for the estimation of service populations

Elin Charles-Edwards, University of Queensland
Martin Bell, University of Queensland
Dominic Brown, University of Queensland

For scholars interested in estimating the temporary populations of small areas, a better understanding of seasonal variations in visitation is a key challenge. If progress is to be made, greater attention is needed to formally modelling temporal patterns of visitation, and establishing their determinants. This paper presents first results from a study to establish the dynamics of temporal variation in visitor numbers to regions of Australia, at a range of time scales. Using data from the Australian National Visitor Survey, a set of statistical measures are generated to capture the key facets of seasonal variation in visitor numbers to 38 Australian tourism regions over the period 1998-2004. Results reveal strong spatial regularities in patterns of visitor regions which reflect both regional influences and functional attributes. The paper concludes by using these findings to sketch elements of a proposed simulation model of temporary populations at the local level.