Labour force projections: a case for the greater metropolitan area of New South Wales To 2031

Yan Tan, Flinders University of South Australia
Sue Richardson, Flinders University of South Australia
Laurence Lester, Flinders University of South Australia

There is a fundamental gap in our understanding of the complexity and uncertainty in projecting labour supply at a regional level due mainly to the lack of longitudinal data and difficulties in determining suitable models for predictions. This study takes the Greater Metropolitan Area (GMA) of New South Wales as a case study to investigate feasible methods to project the future workforce in a region. The study applies a historical-comparative approach to deriving information about generic trends of labour participation and workforce status in the GMA from the panel datasets collected at national and state levels. It uses Growth curve models and cohort analysis methods for projecting the rates of labour participation, part-time employment and unemployment among different age groups by sex. The study demonstrates that the Growth curve models and cohort analysis methods provide effective methodologies and techniques to facilitate projecting the future labour supply at a regional level.