Expected future gains in remaining life expectancy at age 80 in seven European countries

Fanny Janssen, Population Research Centre, Groningen
Anton Kunst, Erasmus Medical Centre, Rotterdam

The degree of ageing of populations is strongly influenced by future old-age mortality patterns. We examined possible future gains in remaining life expectancy at age 80 (e80) up to 2050, by extrapolating different past mortality experiences in Denmark, England&Wales, Finland, France, the Netherlands, Norway, and Sweden. We selected either all-cause mortality or non-smoking related mortality among either those aged 80-100+ from 1950 to 1999 or those aged 55-69 from 1975 to 1999. Alternative annual mortality changes were estimated by age-period regression models and applied to smoothed national age-specific mortality rates among those aged 80 and over in 1999. Up to 2050, e80 is expected to increase further by on average 3.4 years among men and 4.3 years among women. However, a large range is involved. The maximum level of e80 in 2050 is 14.89 among men, and 17.73 among women; the minimum is 7.10 among men, and 7.88 among women.